[메트로신문] With the first-quarter earnings reports of Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and LG Electronics approaching, a mixed outlook is expected for the domestic semiconductor and electronics industries. The evaluations of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix's first-quarter results are skeptical due to the decline in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) shipments and the weakness in memory prices. On the other hand, LG Electronics is expected to exceed market consensus by double digits, driven by the growth of new businesses such as HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning), despite the risks posed by the Trump administration's tariff policies. However, the semiconductor industry is expected to see a clear improvement in performance starting from the second quarter, as the memory market outlook rebounds.

According to financial information provider FnGuide on the 26th, LG Electronics is expected to achieve consolidated sales of 22.353 trillion won and operating profit of 1.2307 trillion won in the first quarter. KB Securities forecasted first-quarter operating profit to be 12% higher than the consensus, at 1.4 trillion won. The strong sales in emerging markets and the growth of the HVAC business are considered to be key drivers of the performance. These are areas LG Electronics has focused on as future growth engines, with R&D investments paying off starting from the first quarter.

This performance is particularly significant as it comes despite challenges such as the tariff policies of the Trump administration, and LG Electronics is expected to achieve record-high results in the first quarter.

On the other hand, the first-quarter earnings outlook for the semiconductor industry, including SK hynix and Samsung Electronics, remains skeptical.

According to the consensus for SK hynix, the leader in high-bandwidth memory (HBM), the company's operating profit is expected to fall to the 6 trillion won range, a decline of more than 1 trillion won compared to the previous quarter. Revenue is also forecasted to drop by more than 12%, settling around 17 trillion won.

The decrease in earnings is attributed to a slight drop in HBM shipments to its key customer, NVIDIA. Production delays of NVIDIA’s AI chip "Blackwell" are contributing to this decline, as TSMC, which manufactures NVIDIA chips, has reached its maximum capacity for advanced packaging production. Additionally, the U.S. semiconductor export restrictions are expected to impact NVIDIA's AI chip exports, which will inevitably affect SK hynix as well.

The situation for Samsung Electronics is similar.

Samsung Electronics' first-quarter operating profit is expected to be around 5 trillion won, a decrease of more than 20% compared to last year's operating profit of 6.61 trillion won. The decline is largely attributed to the weakness in memory and the expanded losses in the foundry business. In fact, the reason for the 2.9 trillion won operating profit in the fourth quarter of last year was also the drop in general-purpose DRAM prices, which accounted for more than half of the memory sector's earnings.

In a recent business report, Samsung Electronics stated, "The memory market is expected to be weak in the short term this year," but "a recovery is expected starting from the second quarter."

The market anticipates that the semiconductor industry's earnings rebound will begin in earnest from the second quarter, as the memory market, excluding HBM, is also showing signs of improvement.

According to market research firm DRAMeXchange, the average spot price of DDR5 16Gb, a high-value DRAM used in AI servers and PCs, has increased by 6.4% to $5.08, compared to a month ago. This marks the third consecutive month of price increases since hitting a low of $4.67 in January.

The average transaction price of the older DDR4 8Gb DRAM has also risen from $1.46 to $1.76 in just the past week.

Park Kang-ho, a researcher at Daishin Securities, forecasted, "NAND flash prices are expected to rise in April, and with the effect of DRAM inventory adjustments, prices will stabilize. We anticipate a rise in DRAM prices in the second and fourth quarters of this year, making the recovery of the memory industry more visible."

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