[메트로신문] As the prices of semiconductor DRAM and NAND flash have rebounded, global investment institutions are collectively raising their earnings outlooks for semiconductor companies, rapidly spreading warmth in the memory semiconductor market. Experts predict that if this trend continues, the "semiconductor supercycle" could arrive as early as the second half of this year.

On the 24th, global investment bank Morgan Stanley raised its earnings forecast for Samsung Electronics' consolidated operating profit this year by 38.4%, from the previous 29.4 trillion won to 40.8 trillion won. In particular, the operating profit forecast for the semiconductor (DS) division is expected to increase by 73.7%, from 19 trillion won to 33 trillion won. Morgan Stanley analyzed, "Samsung Electronics will begin mass production of the 5th generation HBM3E and 6th generation HBM4 in the second half of the year, narrowing the gap with SK hynix."

Market research firm TrendForce forecasts that general DRAM prices will decline by 0-5% in the second quarter of this year. However, prices for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) are expected to rise by 38%.

In fact, according to market research firm DRAMeXchange, the spot price of high-performance DDR5 DRAM (16GB) has increased by 7.8% over the past month, from $4.90 to $5.10. This marks the first price increase in seven months. The price of general-purpose DDR4 DRAM (8GB) has also rebounded, rising from $1.442 on the 7th to $1.49, showing signs of recovery.

As major manufacturers continue their production cuts and supply adjustments, the upward price trend is expected to persist. U.S. NAND flash manufacturer SanDisk announced plans to raise the prices of all NAND products by over 10% starting on the 1st of next month. In response, U.S. Micron and China's Yangtze Memory Technologies (TMTC) have also joined the price hike. According to Taiwan's Electronics Times, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have also announced plans to raise NAND prices starting in April.

Amid expectations of a market recovery, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are ramping up their efforts to meet demand. Both companies are adjusting their production of general-purpose memory while expanding the proportion of high-value-added products such as HBM and DDR5.

Samsung Electronics is optimizing its legacy process lines and accelerating the transition to advanced processes to meet the demand for high-performance, high-capacity products. It is also considering resuming investment at its Pyeongtaek campus, which had been suspended last year.

SK hynix is focusing on the construction of its Cheongju M15X facility, investing around 5.3 trillion won. In addition, last month, the company broke ground on the first phase of its semiconductor cluster in Yongin, aiming to quickly respond to new demand. Kim Jung-woo, Vice President of SK hynix, emphasized, "Infrastructure investments, such as the construction of M15X, will be an important foundation for responding to new demand."

Industry experts believe that the current rebound in memory semiconductor prices is likely to lead to a full-fledged "supercycle" in the second half of this year. However, the "sustainability" of the price increase is expected to be a key variable. External risks, such as global supply chain volatility and trade issues, still exist, so close monitoring of future market trends is necessary.

Lee Soo-rim, a researcher at DS Investment & Securities, stated, "As expectations for price increases spread across the memory sector, there is potential for upward revisions in profit estimates for memory companies. The profit recovery in general-purpose memory, particularly driven by the increase in sales of mid-to-low-end smartphones in China, will likely be stronger for Samsung Electronics." However, she pointed out that "it is important to continuously monitor the memory supply and demand situation and price trends to reassess investment strategies." She further explained, "In March-April of last year, NAND prices rose sharply due to supply adjustments and eSSD inventory accumulation, but in the second half of the year, prices fell again as supply expanded in the absence of demand."

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